Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom fund, believes that Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is not just about offering cheaper trading, but about capturing the upside. Hayes argues that the real differentiator is Hyperliquid's exchange token, HYPE, which allows users to benefit from platform activity.
This sets Hyperliquid apart from competitors like Polymarket and Kalshi. With HIP-4, Hyperliquid users can access event trading with zero fees to open, and those who own the HYPE token can directly profit from their usage of the platform. In contrast, Polymarket is expected to launch its own token, and Kalshi's model is built around compliance and licensing, without token incentives.
The geographic landscape also plays a role, with Hyperliquid facing no equivalent constraints and its user base skewed towards Asia, where crypto-native trading is already established. This contrast makes Hyperliquid's approach the most direct test of Hayes' thesis, which emphasizes the importance of token incentives in capturing the upside of platform usage.