Bitcoin is currently trading at $78,824.11, with minimal gains of less than 0.5% since midnight UTC. However, any attempt to reach $80,000 may be met with resistance. According to Luke Deans, a senior research associate at Bitwise, short-term holders have a cost basis around $80,000, which could prompt them to sell and take profits, thereby limiting any potential price increase.
The release of the US March PCE inflation report, coupled with high oil prices and rising bond yields, may also pose a challenge for the market. The recent decision by the Federal Reserve to maintain the federal funds rate, accompanied by four dissenting votes, has added to the market's uncertainty. Deans notes that altcoins remain closely tied to Bitcoin, with a high correlation and beta percentile of approximately 97% and 99%, respectively. This suggests that tokens may exhibit similar price movements to leveraged Bitcoin trades.
Furthermore, Deans observes that 'conditions typically associated with rising volatility appear to be forming,' characterized by subdued liquidity and a lack of directional conviction. In such environments, significant price movements are often necessary to unlock new liquidity.