The current bitcoin price of $78,436.33 has not yet reached its lowest point, and achieving a new all-time high this year is unlikely, according to Michael Terpin, an early bitcoin investor and author of Bitcoin Supercycle: How the Crypto Calendar Can Make You Rich. Terpin, often referred to as the 'crypto Godfather' due to his early involvement in the industry, believes that for a bull market to be declared, the price must break above $100,000, which he does not expect to happen anytime soon. Despite a double-digit gain in April, Terpin asserts that the bitcoin market is still in a downturn. His pessimistic outlook contrasts with the consensus among analysts that the low point in February marked the end of the bear market and the start of a new bull run.
Most analysts point to renewed investments in U.S.-listed spot ETFs and the token's resilience during the Iran conflict and oil price surge as indicators of a bull run. However, Terpin disagrees, stating that the rejection of the $80,000 psychological barrier during Asian trading hours on Monday, partly due to high oil prices, is typical of this stage in the bitcoin cycle, where lower highs are rejected until the final capitulation. Market analyst Jason Fernandes agrees with Terpin that the bottom has not been reached but disagrees with the timeline, suggesting that the market may not have fully capitulated. Terpin argues that the fundamentals suggest a bottom that includes the historical average of the one-year period from each cycle's bottom, indicating a price of around $57,000, which he predicts will occur in October.
Fernandes notes that broader macro conditions could continue to affect risk assets, including bitcoin, and that liquidity conditions remain tight, making downside volatility likely. The author and entrepreneur also believes that bitcoin will not achieve an all-time high this year, a view disputed by crypto market analyst Mati Greenspan, who thinks that the level of institutional adoption and growing interest make a new all-time high plausible.
AdLunam's Fernandes also notes that market sentiment has not yet reached the levels typically associated with cycle bottoms, suggesting that another leg down may be needed before a sustainable base is formed.