The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a unique scenario where Bitcoin is showing minimal movement despite significant fluctuations in other assets. On Wednesday, during Asian trading hours, Bitcoin hovered just below $77,000, marking a 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decrease over the week. This stability is notable, especially considering Brent crude oil has surpassed $111 per barrel following a Wall Street Journal report that President Donald Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran has expressed its country is in a state of collapse, according to Trump's statement on Truth Social, while Tehran has indicated it might accept an interim deal to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports. Other major cryptocurrencies such as Ether, XRP, Solana, and BNB have experienced declines, with Ether dropping 2.6% to $2,310, XRP falling 3.8% to $1.39, Solana losing 3.2% to $84.57, and BNB shedding 2.3% to $625. However, Dogecoin has seen a 5.5% increase to $0.1016, making it the only top-10 token outside stablecoins to show gains over the week.
As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is slowly increasing, a common occurrence when macroeconomic stress leads to capital flowing into the largest asset. According to Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, Bitcoin's relative stability suggests a shift in market structure. Ebtikar noted that the supply overhang has been depleted, and sellers who were previously spooked by macro shifts or quantum fears have already exited, resulting in a much thinner sell-side market. He added that Bitcoin is less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policy than perceived, and its sensitivity is primarily driven by broader volatility.
Given the current quieter trading range, there is no immediate pressure for sellers to exit. From a technical standpoint, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as a critical level, where a break could lead to further downside.
Conversely, a reversal towards $80,000 would maintain the rally structure and set up a retest of the resistance that has rejected Bitcoin since February. The upcoming Fed rate decision, followed by the ECB's decision, and the US equity market's sell-off due to skepticism about artificial intelligence capital expenditure, have created a complex environment.
Nasdaq 100 futures have rebounded 0.4% in Asian hours, while Brent crude continues to experience volatility, staying near $111 and putting pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions. Traders will be watching whether Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion can withstand the next macro shock.
If Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated in March and April is no longer present, and Bitcoin will trade based on volatility rather than headlines until a new selling wave is triggered.