Research has shown that a small number of traders may be influencing prediction markets, but an even smaller group is accumulating most of the profits. A recent report by blockchain analytics firm Solidus Labs reveals that profit distribution on Polymarket is highly uneven, with less than 1% of wallets capturing approximately half of all gains in key markets. Between December 2025 and February 2026, a mere 0.55% of profitable maker wallets and 0.26% of winning taker wallets accounted for around 50% of gains, with roughly $8 million of the $16 million in profits going to each of these small groups. This data reinforces the notion that a small minority has a significant impact on price movements, while an even smaller minority reaps the financial rewards.
While this concentration of wealth does not necessarily imply any wrongdoing, it does suggest a significant disparity between a small group of sophisticated traders and the broader base of participants. The report highlights the presence of wash trading and notes that some traders have access to more advanced infrastructure and execution strategies, which contributes to the imbalance.
Furthermore, the study points out that some volume may be the result of incentive farming rather than pure manipulation, potentially in anticipation of Polymarket's forthcoming POLY airdrop.