According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom fund, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is not just about cheaper trading, but also about capturing the upside. Hyperliquid is set to introduce a zero-fee-to-open model for event trading under HIP-4, which Hayes believes will quickly become a dominant prediction market venue.
The key differentiator, he argues, is Hyperliquid's exchange token, HYPE, which enables users to profit from platform activity, unlike Polymarket and Kalshi. Hayes notes that users who own the $HYPE token can directly benefit from their usage of HIP-4, giving Hyperliquid a competitive edge. In contrast, Polymarket is expected to launch its own token, $POLY, while Kalshi's model, as a CFTC-regulated exchange, is built around compliance and licensing, without token incentives. The valuation of HYPE, with a fully-diluted valuation of around $38 billion, according to CoinGecko data, also surpasses that of the potential $POLY token.
Geographical differences also play a role, with Polymarket facing regulatory challenges in Asia, while Hyperliquid's user base is skewed towards the region, with no equivalent constraints. The contrast with Kalshi is particularly notable, as its model likely prevents the kind of value-accrual layer Hayes is pointing to, making it a direct test of his thesis.