A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) anticipated to take place in June. This event may divert interest away from cryptocurrencies, as they share the same liquidity pool. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. If successful, this would be the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019.
Additionally, OpenAI and Anthropic are planning their own IPOs, which could collectively raise over $240 billion from June to the end of the year. This massive capital pull may trigger a rotation out of equities and impact the liquidity of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. The correlation between crypto and tech equities has tightened over the past two cycles, with bitcoin and ether trading in tandem with the Nasdaq and S&P 500. As speculative capital leaves equities for IPO allocations, some of this capital may also leave the crypto market, potentially causing a downturn.
The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, serves as a point of concern. The lesson learned from this event is that institutional milestones often mark the top of a cycle rather than the starting line, as the capital that chases these milestones is the same capital that was previously holding up the asset. SpaceX's IPO has two features that directly connect to crypto flows: the 30% retail allocation and the company's material bitcoin position disclosed under the new fair-value accounting rules. The testable signal going forward is whether crypto can hold up through the roadshow window in May and June or begins to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription.