According to Michael Terpin, a well-known early bitcoin investor and author, the current bitcoin price of $78,564.67 is not the bottom, and a new all-time high is unlikely to occur this year. Terpin, often referred to as the 'Crypto Godfather,' predicts that bitcoin will need to fall to approximately $57,000 by October before it can start to ascend. He notes that a bull market cannot be confirmed until the price surpasses $100,000, and currently, there is no support near that level.
Despite a double-digit gain in April, Terpin believes the market is still in a downturn. His outlook contrasts with the consensus among analysts that the low point in February marked the end of the bear market and the beginning of a new bull run. Most analysts cited increased investment in U.S.-listed spot ETFs and the token's resilience during the Iran conflict and oil price spike as reasons for their optimism.
Terpin explained that the rejection of the $80,000 psychological barrier during Asian trading hours on Monday, partly due to high oil prices, is typical of this stage in the bitcoin cycle, where lower highs are rejected until the final capitulation. Market analyst Jason Fernandes agrees with Terpin that the bottom has not been reached but disagrees with the timeline, suggesting that the market may not have fully capitulated yet. Fernandes believes that historically, durable bottoms coincide with a clear exhaustion of speculative leverage and macro uncertainty, which has not occurred yet. Terpin argues that the fundamentals point to a bottom around $57,000, which is the historical average of the one-year period from each cycle's bottom, and predicts this will happen in October.
Fernandes notes that broader macro conditions, including tight liquidity and a higher-for-longer rate environment, could continue to impact risk assets like bitcoin. The author and entrepreneur also stated that bitcoin will not reach an all-time high this year, a view that crypto market analyst Mati Greenspan disagrees with, calling it 'overly bearish.' Greenspan believes there is still room for growth this year, given the level of institutional adoption and interest.
Fernandes added that market sentiment has not yet reached the extreme pessimism typically associated with cycle bottoms, suggesting that another leg down may be necessary before a sustainable base is formed.