A significant number of retail investors are predicting that the price of bitcoin will exceed $90,000 in the near future, which could potentially turn the year-to-date return from negative to positive. However, it is uncertain whether the market will follow this trend. Santiment, a data analytics firm, analyzed thousands of social media posts across various platforms and found that the majority of users are expecting the price of bitcoin to rise above $90,000.
The firm notes that mentions of lower price ranges are being dismissed as fear, uncertainty, and doubt. The crowd's expectations are likely driven by the recent recovery from the February low of around $60,000 and the resilience of bitcoin in the face of various global events. However, Santiment warns that this bullish sentiment could be a contrarian indicator, suggesting that the opposite may occur. The firm cites the old adage that 'wherever the crowd goes, run in the other direction' and notes that contrarian traders use sentiment gauges to inform their decisions.
Interestingly, the recent recovery rally has already stalled, with prices pulling back to $77,000 from highs above $79,000 on Monday, leaving the question of whether this is a pause or the start of a broader reversal.