The US-driven rally in April is losing momentum. The Coinbase Premium, which measures the difference between the price of Bitcoin on Coinbase and offshore exchanges, has turned negative for the first time since early April, according to CryptoQuant data. This metric had been consistently positive from April 8 to April 22, during which time Bitcoin's price rose from $66,000 to a local high of nearly $78,000.
The premium peaked around April 22 and has been declining since. As Coinbase is often used as a proxy for US institutional and dollar-denominated flows, a persistent negative reading suggests that American investors are now paying less than the rest of the world, indicating they are either selling more aggressively or not participating as much. On-chain data supports this narrative, with the 7-day sum of Bitcoin Realized Loss spiking to $5.97 billion on April 24 as Bitcoin traded near $78,000.
This realized loss is only recorded when coins are sold below their original purchase price. The fact that the realized loss is near $6 billion at a price of $78,000 implies that the sellers were buyers at higher prices.
According to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr., this group of sellers likely entered the market between $80,000 and $95,000 in late 2025 and early 2026, using the April bounce as an exit opportunity rather than a reentry point. These two datasets suggest that US institutional buyers are slowing their purchases through Coinbase, coinciding with an increase in selling activity by holders. With Bitcoin recently trading around $76,000, traders are watching to see if the Realized Loss metric will continue to decline as the supply of underwater coins is worked through. The reading has already decreased from its April 24 peak to $4.7 billion by April 28, indicating that the seller cohort is diminishing.