A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's planned $75 billion IPO set to take place in June, which could divert interest away from the crypto market. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming for a $1.75 trillion valuation. If successful, this would be the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019. Additionally, OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with valuations nearing $1 trillion and potentially raising over $60 billion, respectively.
The combined capital raise of over $240 billion from these IPOs could exceed the total venture-backed US IPOs since 2000, according to PitchBook. This massive influx of capital could lead to a rotation out of equities and into these new listings, potentially triggering a bearish trend in the market.
The MSCI has modeled a scenario where megacap IPOs in 2026 could lead to index-driven flows, sector-rotation effects, and a compression of liquidity in assets outside of these new listings. As crypto is part of the same risk-on liquidity pool as tech and AI equities, it may be affected by the diversion of speculative capital into these IPOs. Historically, institutional milestones have often marked the peak of an asset's value, rather than the starting point, as the capital that chases these milestones is often the same capital that was previously supporting the asset. The 30% retail allocation of SpaceX's IPO, roughly $22 billion, could also divert funds away from crypto.
Furthermore, SpaceX's holding of 8,285 BTC, worth around $600 million, makes its IPO the first public-market debut of a company with a material bitcoin position disclosed under the new fair-value accounting rules. The impact of this IPO on the crypto market will be visible in the coming weeks, as the roadshow window in May and June approaches.