The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a unique phenomenon where Bitcoin is stagnant, while other assets are experiencing fluctuations. On Wednesday, during Asian trading hours, Bitcoin hovered just below $77,000, marking a 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decrease over the week. This stability persisted despite Brent crude oil prices surpassing $111 per barrel, largely due to a Wall Street Journal report indicating that President Donald Trump has instructed his aides to prepare for a prolonged US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran has described its current situation as a 'State of Collapse,' according to Trump's statement on Truth Social, while Tehran has hinted at potentially accepting an interim agreement to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade on Iranian ports. Other major cryptocurrencies, such as Ether, XRP, Solana, and BNB, have experienced significant losses over the week, with declines of 2.6%, 3.8%, 3.2%, and 2.3%, respectively.
In contrast, Dogecoin saw a 5.5% increase, making it the only top-10 token outside stablecoins to exhibit growth over the past week. As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is gradually increasing, a trend often observed during periods of macroeconomic stress when capital flows into the largest asset. Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, attributes Bitcoin's relative calm to a shift in market structure.
'The supply overhang has finally dissipated, and sellers who were spooked by macro shifts or quantum fears have already exited, leaving the market much thinner on the sell-side than it was just a few months ago,' he stated in an email to CoinDesk. 'Bitcoin is far less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policy than people think. Its sensitivity is purely a function of wider volatility, and since we're currently in a quieter trading range, there's no immediate rush for the exits,' Ebtikar added. From a technical perspective, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as a critical level, where a breakdown could lead to further losses.
Conversely, a reversal towards $80,000 would maintain the rally structure and set the stage for a retest of the resistance that has consistently rejected Bitcoin since February. The upcoming Fed rate decision, scheduled for later on Wednesday, and the ECB's decision on Thursday, will be closely watched by traders. The US equity market experienced a sell-off on Tuesday due to growing skepticism about the returns on artificial intelligence capital expenditure, although Nasdaq 100 futures have since rebounded by 0.4% during Asian trading hours. Brent crude prices continue to fluctuate, staying elevated near $111, and exerting renewed pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions.
Traders will be monitoring whether Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion can withstand the next macro shock. If Ebtikar's assessment is accurate, the seller base that capitulated during March and April is no longer a factor, and Bitcoin's price will be driven by volatility rather than headlines, unless a new selling wave is triggered.