According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom fund, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is focused on capturing upside potential rather than just offering cheaper trading. The Hyperliquid Improvement Proposal (HIP)-4 introduces event trading on the platform with a zero-fee-to-open model. Hayes argues that the true differentiator is Hyperliquid's exchange token, HYPE, which enables users to benefit from platform activity.
This sets it apart from Polymarket and Kalshi, which do not currently offer similar token-based incentives. Hayes predicts that HIP-4 will become a dominant prediction market due to Hyperliquid's large user base, lower trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure, with HYPE token holders able to directly profit from their usage of the platform. In contrast, Polymarket is expected to launch its own token, while Kalshi's model is built around compliance and licensing, without token incentives. The geographic landscape also plays a role, with Hyperliquid facing no equivalent constraints in Asia, where its user base is skewed.
The contrast between Hyperliquid, Polymarket, and Kalshi highlights the different approaches to prediction markets, with Hyperliquid's token-based model potentially offering a unique value proposition.