A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's initial public offering expected to draw significant interest from investors. The company has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, seeking to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion.
If successful, this would not only be the largest stock market debut in history but also more than twice the size of Saudi Aramco's record-breaking $29 billion IPO in 2019. Polymarket traders predict a 65% chance of the IPO occurring in June and a 53% chance that the company's market cap will exceed $2 trillion on its first day of trading.
SpaceX is not alone in its plans, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also preparing for public listings, with the latter aiming to raise over $60 billion in October. The combined capital raised by these three companies could exceed $240 billion, surpassing the total amount raised by all venture-backed US IPOs since 2000.
This massive influx of capital could have a significant impact on the crypto market, as it may divert liquidity away from bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. The correlation between crypto and tech stocks has been tightening over the past two cycles, with bitcoin and other majors trading in tandem with the Nasdaq and S&P 500. When speculative capital flows out of equities and into IPOs, it can lead to a decline in higher-beta assets, including crypto.
A similar scenario played out in 2021 when Coinbase listed on the stock market, marking the peak of the last bitcoin cycle. The company's IPO was followed by a 50% drawdown in bitcoin's value over the next six weeks. The lesson from this experience is that institutional milestones can often mark the top of a market rather than the starting point, as the capital that chases these milestones is often the same capital that was previously supporting the asset.
SpaceX's IPO has two key features that could impact crypto flows: a 30% retail allocation, which is three times the typical retail share for a deal of this size, and the company's holdings of 8,285 BTC, worth approximately $600 million, in Coinbase Prime custody. This makes SpaceX the first public company with a material bitcoin position disclosed under the new fair-value accounting rules.
The upcoming roadshow window in May and June will be a testable signal for whether crypto can hold up against the impending IPO or if it will begin to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription. A bitcoin rally that extends through the roadshow period could suggest that the spot-ETF bid has decoupled crypto from broader risk-on flows, but only time will tell if the market has learned from past experiences.