The resurgence of the Iran war premium has negatively impacted the crypto market. Over the past 24 hours, bitcoin has declined 2.1% to $75,633, representing a 3% weekly loss, as Brent crude oil prices jumped 7.1% to $126.41 per barrel - a four-year high - following an Axios report that President Trump will receive a briefing on potential military action against Iran. The report also mentioned that the US Central Command has requested the deployment of hypersonic missiles to the Middle East, which would mark the first combat use of such weapons by American forces.
The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since the conflict began in late February, severely restricting the flow of crude oil, natural gas, and petroleum products. This development has led to a war premium, which refers to the portion of an asset's price driven by conflict risk rather than fundamental supply and demand. Brent crude oil has been carrying a significant war premium all year, with prices increasing over 100% year-to-date.
The global benchmark has now experienced a nine-day winning streak, the longest since May 2022, and is up over 100% year-to-date. Ether has dropped 3.4% to $2,244, representing a 4.4% weekly loss, while XRP has fallen 2.1% to $1.37, a 3.7% decline over seven days. Solana has lost 2.6% to $82.62, and BNB has shed 1.9% to $615. The only top 10 cryptocurrency experiencing gains, excluding stablecoins, is dogecoin, which has risen 3.8% on the day and 10.1% on the week to $0.10.
Risk assets are broadly retreating, with Nasdaq 100 futures erasing an earlier 1.1% rally fueled by strong earnings from Alphabet and Amazon, MSCI's Asia Pacific share index declining 1.4%, and European equities poised to drop 1% at the open. The US dollar has gained, while bonds have slid, as the surge in oil prices and a hawkish Fed have reduced demand for fixed income. Treasury 10-year yields have held near the highest levels since July, while Japan's 10-year notes have reached the highest level since 1997, according to Bloomberg.
Bitcoin's resilience during the early stages of the conflict is being tested, as the asset has maintained a tight range between $74,000 and $78,000 throughout April, despite oil prices rising from $98 to $126 and the conflict entering its third month. Each escalation headline has produced a sharper decline, and the cumulative damage is beginning to show.
Bitcoin is now $50,000 below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000. Fernando Lillo, director at exchange Zoomex, noted in a report that any break above $80,000 would require the war premium to unwind. 'Bitcoin is attempting to break the key $80,000 level, which would necessitate a resolution to the Middle East conflict and, consequently, a drop in Brent crude oil prices below $100 per barrel,' he stated. 'One is impossible without the other, and the US administration's plans for a prolonged naval blockade of Iran are becoming a significant obstacle.' Lillo flagged a possible scenario in which the Trump administration lifts the blockade in the coming days and frames it as a response to 'positive steps by Iran' to engineer a relief rally.
'A potential lifting of restrictions in the region and lower oil prices could trigger an accelerated influx of capital into risk assets, paving the way for Bitcoin to consolidate above $80,000 and move toward $85,000.'