The prediction market landscape is undergoing a significant transformation, shifting from sporadic, event-driven bets to platforms characterized by daily user engagement, according to a report by Bitget Wallet and Polymarket. In March, Polymarket's trading volume reached $25.7 billion, but the report highlights a more profound change in user behavior. Analyzing activity from 1.29 million wallets in the first quarter, it's evident that users are returning more frequently and participating in a broader range of markets, spanning crypto, sports, and politics.
The growth is attributed to the frequency of trades rather than their size, with over 82% of users trading less than $10,000 during the quarter, indicating the market's dominance by retail participants. Instead of making large, infrequent bets, users are now engaging in smaller, more regular trades. Alvin Kan, Bitget Wallet's COO, notes, 'Prediction markets are becoming less about capital and more about consistent, repeated actions. We're witnessing a behavioral shift: the market is scaling with more taps per day, not bigger trades.' Crypto remains the primary entry point for new users, accounting for nearly 40% of early activity, due to its continuous trading and familiar price movements.
However, as users become more active, their participation shifts towards markets tied to real-world events. The report frames this evolution as a structural change, where prediction markets are no longer driven solely by spikes around major events like elections, but are becoming continuous systems where users return regularly to track and respond to changing probabilities. Elden Mirzoian, Polymarket's director of growth and partnerships, comments, 'As prediction markets evolve into core financial infrastructure, distribution becomes as important as the underlying market itself. We're seeing a shift from episodic trading to more continuous engagement.' This shift is also changing how these markets are used, with prices increasingly reflecting real-time expectations around macroeconomic trends, politics, and culture, and beginning to appear alongside traditional data sources in media and financial analysis.
The growth has been rapid, with monthly trading volume climbing from about $1.2 billion in 2025 to over $20 billion in early 2026, while active wallets have more than tripled in six months. Industry projections cited in the report estimate the market could reach $240 billion in volume this year, with a longer-term path toward $1 trillion. As participation increases, the focus is moving toward access and usability, with wallets emerging as key entry points, helping users discover markets and interact with them in real time.