A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's $75 billion IPO expected to take place in June, drawing interest from the same liquidity pool as crypto. Alongside OpenAI's and Anthropic's planned listings, these IPOs could pull in over $240 billion from June to year-end, exceeding the total venture-backed US IPOs since 2000. This massive capital pull may impact crypto, as it shares the same risk-on liquidity pool as tech and AI equities.
The correlation between crypto and equities, particularly Nasdaq and S&P 500, has tightened over the past two cycles, suggesting that speculative capital leaving equities for IPO allocations could affect crypto prices. The historical parallel with Coinbase's 2021 listing, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, raises concerns that institutional milestones may signal tops rather than starting lines. SpaceX's 30% retail allocation and its material bitcoin position, worth roughly $600 million, connect directly to crypto flows, making the IPO a significant event to watch for crypto investors. The testable signal will be whether crypto holds up through the roadshow window in May and June or begins to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription.