Michael Terpin, also known as the 'Crypto Godfather' and author of Bitcoin Supercycle: How the Crypto Calendar Can Make You Rich, believes that bitcoin's current price of $78,945.97 is not its lowest point and that a new record high is unlikely in 2026. Terpin expects the price to plummet to $57,000 by October before it can begin to ascend, citing the need for the price to surpass $100,000 with no nearby support levels to confirm a bull market. Despite his predictions, Terpin's outlook contradicts the consensus among analysts that the February low of around $60,000 marked the end of the bear market and the beginning of a new bull run. Many analysts point to renewed investments in U.S.-listed spot ETFs and bitcoin's resilience during the Iran conflict and oil price spike as evidence of an impending bull run.
However, Terpin remains skeptical, stating that the rejection of the $80,000 psychological barrier during Asian trading hours on Monday is typical of this stage in the bitcoin cycle, where lower highs are rejected until the final capitulation. Market analyst Jason Fernandes agrees that the bottom has not been reached but disagrees with Terpin's timeline, suggesting that the market may not have fully capitulated yet. Fernandes believes that historically, durable bottoms tend to coincide with a clear exhaustion of speculative leverage and macro uncertainty, which has not occurred yet.
Terpin insists that the fundamentals point to a bottom that includes the historical average of the one-year period from each cycle's bottom, indicating a price of around $57,000. Fernandes adds that broader macro conditions could continue to weigh on risk assets, including bitcoin, due to tight liquidity conditions and a higher-for-longer rate environment. The 'Crypto Godfather' also predicts that bitcoin will not see an all-time high this year, a view that crypto market analyst Mati Greenspan disagrees with, stating that there is still room for growth given the level of institutional adoption and growing interest. AdLunam's Fernandes also notes that market sentiment has not yet reached the levels typically associated with cycle bottoms, suggesting that another leg down may be needed before a sustainable base is formed.