The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a period of stagnation for bitcoin, with minimal movement, while other assets experience fluctuations. On Wednesday, during Asian trading hours, bitcoin hovered just below $77,000, with a 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decline over the week. This stability is notable, especially as Brent crude oil exceeded $111 per barrel following a Wall Street Journal report that President Donald Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
In response to the situation, Iran has claimed the country is on the verge of collapse, according to Trump's statement on Truth Social. Tehran, however, has indicated a willingness to consider an interim deal to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports. Among other cryptocurrencies, ether dropped 2.6% to $2,310 over the week, XRP fell 3.8% to $1.39, solana lost 3.2% to $84.57, and BNB declined 2.3% to $625. The only exception was dogecoin, which rose 5.5% to $0.1016 over the week, making it the sole top-10 token outside stablecoins to experience gains over the seven-day period.
As a result, bitcoin's market dominance is gradually increasing, a common occurrence when macroeconomic stress arises and capital flows into the largest asset. Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, noted in a statement that bitcoin's relative calmness is indicative of a shift in market structure. 'The supply overhang has finally been absorbed, and the sellers who were spooked by macro shifts or quantum fears have already exited, leaving the market much thinner on the sell-side than it was just a few months ago,' he said in an email to CoinDesk.
'Bitcoin is far less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policy than people think. Its sensitivity is purely a function of wider volatility, and since we're currently in a quieter trading range, there's no immediate rush for the exits,' Ebtikar added. From a technical perspective, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as the critical level where the upward range that has held since late March breaks, potentially leading to further downside.
A reversal back toward $80,000 from current levels would maintain the rally structure intact and set up a retest of the resistance that has rejected bitcoin every attempt since February. The Fed is set to announce its rate decision later on Wednesday, followed by the ECB on Thursday.
The US equity market experienced a sell-off on Tuesday due to growing skepticism about the payoff from artificial intelligence capital expenditure, with Nasdaq 100 futures recovering 0.4% in Asian hours. Brent crude prices remained elevated near $111, putting renewed pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions. Traders will be watching to see if bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion holds against the next macro shock.
If Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated through March and April is gone, and bitcoin trades on volatility rather than headlines until something forces a fresh leg of selling. If the assessment is incorrect, $75,000 may be tested quickly, and the range break flagged by Bitget could play out as expected.