Research has shown that a limited number of traders are significantly influencing prediction markets, with an even smaller group accumulating the majority of the profits. According to a recent report by blockchain analytics firm Solidus Labs, profit concentration on Polymarket is exceptionally high, with less than 1% of wallets capturing around half of all gains in key markets. Between December 2025 and February 2026, a mere 0.55% of profitable maker wallets and 0.26% of winning taker wallets accounted for approximately 50% of the gains, translating to around $8 million out of $16 million in profits. This data supports previous academic findings that a small minority of traders drives most price discovery.
The significant imbalance suggests a structural divide between a small group of sophisticated traders and the broader base of participants, with the former operating with substantial advantages. The report also identifies signs of wash trading, accounting for roughly 15% of volume in some markets, which may be attributed to incentive farming or manipulation.
While the data is verifiable, the framing of the report should be considered in the context of Solidus' sales pitch for its surveillance platform.