The US-driven momentum that fueled April's rally is losing steam. The Coinbase Premium, which measures the difference between the price of Bitcoin on Coinbase and offshore exchanges, has turned negative for the first time since early April, according to CryptoQuant data. This metric had consistently shown a positive trend from April 8 to April 22, mirroring the period when Bitcoin's price rose from $66,000 to a local high of nearly $78,000.
The premium peaked around April 22 and has since declined. As Coinbase is often used as a proxy for US institutional and dollar-denominated flows, a persistent negative reading suggests that American investors are now paying less than the rest of the world, indicating either more aggressive selling or a lack of participation. On-chain data supports this narrative, with the 7-day sum of Bitcoin Realized Loss surging to $5.97 billion on April 24 as Bitcoin traded near $78,000.
This realized loss is only recorded when holders sell coins below their original purchase price. The significant spike near $6 billion at $78,000 implies that sellers were likely buyers at higher prices, between $80,000 and $95,000, during late 2025 and early 2026, using the April bounce as an exit opportunity rather than a re-entry point, according to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. These two datasets indicate that US institutional buyers are slowing their pace through Coinbase, coinciding with increased selling activity by holders. With Bitcoin recently trading around $76,000, traders are watching to see if the Realized Loss metric will continue to decline as the underwater supply is worked through.
The reading has already decreased from its April 24 peak to $4.7 billion by April 28, suggesting the seller cohort is diminishing.