According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom fund, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is focused on capturing the upside, rather than just offering cheaper trading. Hyperliquid is set to introduce a zero-fee-to-open model for event trading under its HIP-4 proposal, which Hayes believes is only the first layer. The real differentiator, he argues, is Hyperliquid's exchange token, HYPE, which allows users to profit from platform activity, unlike Polymarket and Kalshi. Hayes predicts that HIP-4 will quickly become a leading prediction market due to Hyperliquid's large user base, lower trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure, with HYPE token holders able to directly profit from their usage of HIP-4.
In contrast, Polymarket is expected to launch its own token, while Kalshi's model, as a CFTC-regulated exchange, is built around compliance and licensing, without token incentives. The geographical landscape also plays a role, with Polymarket facing regulatory challenges in Asia, while Hyperliquid's user base is skewed towards the region, with no equivalent constraints.
The contrast between the three platforms is clear, with Hyperliquid tying usage to a token, Polymarket potentially moving in that direction, and Kalshi's model likely preventing it altogether.