The yield on the 30-year US Treasury note has surged to 5%, its highest level since July 2025, prompting concerns among crypto analysts about the potential impact on bitcoin. This increase in bond yields is attributed to various factors, including dissent within the Federal Reserve, rising oil prices, and growing long-term inflation expectations. As a result, investors may be drawn to the relatively safe and attractive returns offered by bonds, potentially leading to a decline in assets like bitcoin.
The current market conditions, characterized by a strong US dollar and rising bond yields, are likely to exert downward pressure on crypto valuations. Experts warn that the dynamic is straightforward: as long as yields remain high and the Fed's monetary policy stays tight, capital will seek alternative, lower-risk investments, putting pressure on assets like crypto.
The rise in bond yields is not limited to the US, with yields also increasing in the UK and other parts of the world. The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates, combined with the internal dissent among its officials, has contributed to the surge in bond yields. Furthermore, the recent oil price rally, driven by concerns over supply disruptions, is lifting inflation expectations and pushing yields higher.
Overall, the current macroeconomic environment, marked by rising bond yields, a strong dollar, and elevated inflation expectations, is expected to continue posing a challenge for bitcoin and other risk assets.