A historic IPO is on the horizon, with SpaceX aiming to raise $75 billion in capital, which could have significant implications for the crypto market. The company filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC earlier this month, targeting a valuation of $1.75 trillion. If successful, this would not only be the largest stock-market debut in history but also more than 2.5 times larger than Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019. Alongside SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic are also set to go public, with the combined capital raise expected to exceed $240 billion from June through year-end.
This massive influx of capital could lead to a significant pull on liquidity, affecting not just the stock market but also the crypto space, as these assets share the same liquidity pool. The correlation between crypto and tech equities has tightened over the past two cycles, with bitcoin and other majors trading in tandem with the Nasdaq and S&P 500. When speculative capital leaves equities for an IPO allocation, some of the same capital that would otherwise bid up higher-beta assets, including crypto, is redirected.
Historical parallels, such as Coinbase's listing in April 2021, which coincided with the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, suggest that institutional milestones can mark the beginning of a downturn rather than an upswing. The SpaceX IPO, with its 30% retail allocation and the company's significant bitcoin holdings, could have a direct impact on crypto flows. As the roadshow window approaches in May and June, the crypto market's response will be a key indicator of whether it can decouple from broader risk-on flows or if it will be affected by the significant capital pull of the SpaceX IPO.