The price of bitcoin has not yet reached its lowest point and is unlikely to achieve a new record high this year, according to Michael Terpin, a seasoned bitcoin investor and author of Bitcoin Supercycle. Terpin believes that before a bull market can commence, the price of bitcoin must surpass $100,000, a level that has not been reached recently.
He predicts that the price will drop to $57,000 by October, marking the beginning of its ascent. However, not all analysts agree with Terpin's forecast, with some arguing that the market has not fully capitulated and that a new all-time high is still possible this year. Terpin, often referred to as the 'Crypto Godfather,' has been involved in the industry since 2013 and has founded several companies, including Transform Group and BitAngels.
His bearish outlook contradicts the consensus among analysts that the low point in February marked the end of the bear market and the start of a new bull run. Most analysts cited increased investment in U.S.-listed spot ETFs and the token's resilience during the Iran conflict and oil price spike as reasons for their bullish outlook.
In an interview, Terpin stated that the psychological barrier of $80,000 was strongly rejected during Asian trading hours, which is typical at this stage of the bitcoin cycle. Jason Fernandes, a market analyst, agrees with Terpin that the bottom has not been reached but disagrees with the timeline, arguing that the market may not have fully capitulated. Terpin insists that the fundamentals point to a bottom that includes the historical average of the one-year period from each cycle's bottom, indicating a price of around $57,000. Fernandes notes that broader macro conditions could continue to affect risk assets, including bitcoin, and that a more decisive shift in monetary policy or a true washout event in crypto markets is needed to reduce downside volatility.
The author and entrepreneur also believes that bitcoin will not achieve an all-time high this year, a prediction disputed by Mati Greenspan, a crypto market analyst. Greenspan argues that Terpin's take is overly bearish and that an all-time high is still possible given the level of institutional adoption and growing interest. Fernandes also notes that market sentiment has not yet reached the levels typically associated with cycle bottoms, suggesting that another leg down may be needed before a sustainable base is formed.