The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a unique scenario where Bitcoin is exhibiting minimal movement, despite significant fluctuations in other assets. On Wednesday, during Asian trading hours, Bitcoin hovered just below $77,000, marking a 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decrease over the week. This stability is notable, especially considering the surge in Brent crude oil prices above $111 per barrel, triggered by a Wall Street Journal report that President Donald Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. In response to the situation, Iran has described its current state as one of "collapse," according to Trump's statement on Truth Social.
Tehran, however, has indicated a willingness to consider an interim agreement to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports. Over the week, Ether experienced a 2.6% decline to $2,310, XRP fell 3.8% to $1.39, Solana dropped 3.2% to $84.57, and BNB decreased 2.3% to $625. In contrast, Dogecoin saw a 5.5% increase to $0.1016, making it the only top-10 token, excluding stablecoins, to exhibit growth over the seven-day period.
As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is gradually increasing, a trend often observed during periods of macroeconomic stress when capital flows into the largest asset. According to Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, Bitcoin's relative calmness is indicative of a shift in market structure.
Ebtikar noted that the supply overhang has been depleted, and sellers who were previously spooked by macro shifts or quantum fears have already exited the market, resulting in a thinner sell-side. He also stated that Bitcoin is less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policy than commonly perceived, with its sensitivity being primarily driven by broader volatility.
Given the current quieter trading range, there is no immediate pressure to exit the market. From a technical perspective, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as the critical level that, if breached, could lead to a breakdown of the upward range that has held since late March, potentially paving the way for further downside movement. Conversely, a reversal towards $80,000 would maintain the rally structure intact and set the stage for a retest of the resistance that has consistently rejected Bitcoin since February.
The upcoming Fed rate decision, scheduled for later on Wednesday, and the ECB's decision on Thursday, are likely to be closely watched by traders. The US equity market experienced a sell-off on Tuesday, driven by growing skepticism about the returns on artificial intelligence capital expenditure, although Nasdaq 100 futures have since rebounded by 0.4% during Asian hours. Brent crude oil prices continue to fluctuate, remaining elevated near $111, which may exert renewed pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions.
Traders will be monitoring whether Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion can withstand the next macro shock. If Ebtikar's assessment is accurate, the seller base that capitulated in March and April has been depleted, and Bitcoin's price will be driven by volatility rather than headlines, unless a new selling wave is triggered.