The US-driven rally in April is losing momentum. The Coinbase Premium, which measures the difference between the price of Bitcoin on Coinbase and offshore exchanges, has turned negative for the first time since early April, according to CryptoQuant data. This metric had been consistently positive from April 8 to April 22, during which time Bitcoin's price rose from $66,000 to a local high of $78,000.
However, the premium has been declining since its peak on April 22. As Coinbase is often used as a proxy for US institutional and dollar-denominated flows, a persistent negative reading suggests that American investors are paying less than the rest of the world, indicating either more aggressive selling or a lack of buying interest.
On-chain data supports this narrative, with the 7-day sum of Bitcoin Realized Loss spiking to $5.97 billion on April 24 as Bitcoin traded near $78,000. This means that holders who bought at higher prices are selling at a loss, with CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr.
suggesting that this cohort likely entered the market between $80,000 and $95,000 in late 2025 and early 2026. The decline in the Realized Loss metric, which has fallen to $4.7 billion by April 28, suggests that the seller cohort is dwindling. Traders are now watching to see if this trend continues as the underwater supply is worked through.