The yield on the 30-year US Treasury note has surged to 5%, its highest level since July 2025, prompting concerns among crypto analysts that rising yields will hinder bitcoin's performance. As bond yields increase, they become more attractive to investors, potentially leading to a capital rotation out of risk assets like bitcoin. This shift is exacerbated by the strengthening US dollar, which has put downward pressure on bitcoin's value.
According to experts, the combination of rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar has historically led to decreased crypto valuations by tightening financial conditions. The recent surge in oil prices has also contributed to higher inflation expectations, further driving up bond yields. With the Federal Reserve signaling no immediate intention to ease monetary policy, the outlook for bitcoin and other risk assets remains challenging.