The alleged $400,000 insider bet by a Green Beret on a Venezuela raid initially seemed like an isolated incident. However, a new report from the Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) suggests that this may be just the tip of the iceberg.
The nonprofit research group analyzed over 435,000 Polymarket contracts and $54.4 billion in cumulative volume from January 2021 to mid-March 2026. The findings indicate that low-probability bets on military and defense outcomes have success rates that defy explanation by skill or luck alone, with some cases exceeding 50%. This is significantly higher than the typical 14% success rate for longshot bets in political markets. The authors of the report note that markets tied to government policies, such as military and defense, are more susceptible to information asymmetries, including insider trading and specialized knowledge.
As a result, a small group of traders can consistently outperform others by leveraging their access to confidential information. Polymarket has emphasized its market surveillance teams and cooperation with the Department of Justice on the Venezuela case, stressing that trading on confidential knowledge is prohibited on the platform.
The ACDC report's findings build upon existing research, which suggests that a small percentage of traders drive price discovery on Polymarket. Separate analysis has shown that profits are highly concentrated, with fewer than 1% of wallets capturing approximately half of all gains. The report examines the June 2025 U.S.
strikes on Iran as a case study, highlighting the placement of 19 longshot bets totaling $164,292 in the hours leading up to the strike. Eight wallets shared about $1.8 million in profits, with one taking nearly $500,000. The Pentagon had designed the operation to be unreadable from the outside, yet a small number of traders placed large, well-timed bets on the outcome.
The pattern extends beyond this single event, with winning longshot bets outnumbering losing ones in five of the six two-hour windows before market resolution across Polymarket's military and defense category. While longshot bets can outperform due to various reasons, including mispricing or shifts in public expectations, the consistency of the patterns suggests that some participants may be operating with information advantages. The ACDC report recommends implementing identity verification for bettors, conditional payouts on suspicious wagers, restrictions on markets whose outcomes are decided by small groups, and limits on contract granularity. The report's conclusion goes further, calling for an evidence-informed debate on whether the public should be betting on these outcomes at all.