The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a unique trend where Bitcoin is holding steady despite significant movements in other assets. On Wednesday, during Asian trading hours, Bitcoin hovered just below $77,000, marking a 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decrease over the week. This stability persists even as Brent crude oil prices exceeded $111 per barrel, prompted by a Wall Street Journal report stating that President Donald Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran has described its current state as one of "collapse," according to Trump's statement on Truth Social, while Tehran has indicated a potential willingness to accept an interim agreement to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports. Other major cryptocurrencies such as Ether, XRP, Solana, and BNB have experienced declines, with Ether dropping 2.6% to $2,310, XRP falling 3.8% to $1.39, Solana losing 3.2% to $84.57, and BNB shedding 2.3% to $625. In contrast, Dogecoin saw a 5.5% increase to $0.1016, making it the only top-10 token outside stablecoins to show gains over the week.
As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is gradually increasing, a common occurrence when macroeconomic stress leads to capital flowing into the largest asset. Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, noted that Bitcoin's relative calmness suggests a shift in market structure.
"The oversupply has been absorbed, and sellers who were spooked by macro shifts or quantum concerns have already exited, leaving the market much thinner on the sell-side than it was a few months ago," Ebtikar stated in an email to CoinDesk. "Bitcoin is less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policy than people think; its sensitivity is purely a function of wider volatility, and since we're currently in a quieter trading range, there's no immediate rush for the exits," he added.
From a technical standpoint, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as the critical level where the upward range that has held since late March would break, potentially leading to further downside. A reversal towards $80,000 from current levels would maintain the rally structure and set up a retest of the resistance that has rejected Bitcoin's attempts since February. The Fed is set to announce its rate decision later on Wednesday, followed by the ECB on Thursday, and the US equity market experienced a sell-off on Tuesday due to growing skepticism about the payoff from artificial intelligence capital expenditure, with Nasdaq 100 futures recovering 0.4% in Asian hours. Brent crude prices continued to fluctuate but remained elevated near $111 due to the blockade reports, increasing pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions.
Traders may be watching to see if Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion holds against the next macro shock. If Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated through March and April is gone, and Bitcoin's price will be driven by volatility rather than headlines until something triggers a fresh wave of selling. If the assessment is incorrect, $75,000 may be tested quickly, and the range break flagged by Bitget could play out as anticipated.