Research has shown that a small group of traders may be influencing prediction markets, but a new report reveals that an even smaller group is reaping most of the financial benefits. According to blockchain analytics firm Solidus Labs, profit concentration on Polymarket is extremely skewed, with less than 1% of wallets accounting for roughly half of all gains in key markets. Between December 2025 and February 2026, a mere 0.55% of profitable maker wallets captured 50% of gains, while 0.26% of winning taker wallets accounted for nearly the same share, translating to approximately $8 million out of $16 million in profits. This data supports previous findings that a small minority of traders drives price discovery, but also highlights a significant disparity in wealth distribution.
While some traders may have a legitimate advantage due to their sophistication, capital, or speed, the report suggests that the scale of the imbalance indicates a structural divide between a small group of privileged traders and the broader base of participants. The study also detected signs of wash trading, with around 15% of volume in some markets exhibiting patterns consistent with self-trading or economically neutral positions. Solidus Labs' findings have implications for the need for surveillance infrastructure in prediction markets, but the data itself remains verifiable and unaffected by the firm's sales pitch.