According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is focused on capturing upside potential, rather than just reducing trading costs. The Hyperliquid Improvement Proposal (HIP)-4, which introduces event trading, is expected to be a game-changer, with Hayes noting that the real differentiator is the HYPE token, allowing users to profit from platform activity. Hayes believes that HIP-4 will quickly become a dominant prediction market due to Hyperliquid's large user base, lower trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure, with HYPE token holders able to directly profit from their usage of HIP-4.
In contrast, competitors like Polymarket and Kalshi do not offer this benefit, with Polymarket expected to launch its own token and Kalshi's model built around compliance and licensing rather than token incentives. The geographic landscape also plays a role, with Hyperliquid facing no equivalent constraints and its user base skewed towards Asia, where crypto-native trading is already well-established.
This contrast is particularly evident with Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange that likely rules out the kind of value-accrual layer Hayes is pointing to, making it the most direct test of his thesis.