Gemini Secures Derivatives License, Enters Regulated Prediction Markets

Gemini, the cryptocurrency exchange founded by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, has received approval from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for a derivatives clearinghouse license. This development enables the company to clear and settle trades internally, providing greater control over its prediction market products. As a result, Gemini's shares experienced a 7% surge following the announcement. The prediction markets sector has witnessed rapid growth, with trading volumes increasing by over 300% in 2025 to $63.5 billion. Gemini's entry into this sector is expected to intensify competition with established players such as Kalshi and Polymarket, as well as newcomers like Hyperliquid. The company's plans to expand into crypto futures, options, and perpetuals for U.S. users are also underway. With the newly acquired licenses, Gemini aims to establish a comprehensive trading ecosystem, offering a range of products including sports, crypto, futures, options, and event-based contracts. According to Cameron Winklevoss, this milestone marks a significant step towards creating a 'super app' for financial services. Gemini's focus on the U.S. market follows its exit from the U.K., European Union, and Australia, which included a 25% staff reduction. The founders believe that the U.S. has the world's most prominent capital markets and that prediction markets will eventually surpass traditional capital markets in size.