A historic stock market debut is approaching, with SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) expected to take place in June, and it may have a significant impact on the crypto market. The company has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion.
If successful, this would be the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019. Furthermore, OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with valuations nearing $1 trillion and $60 billion, respectively. The combined capital raised by these companies could exceed $240 billion, a figure that surpasses the total venture-backed US IPOs since 2000, according to PitchBook. This massive influx of capital may lead to a reduction in liquidity, affecting not only the stock market but also the crypto market, as they share the same risk-on liquidity pool.
The correlation between crypto and tech/AI equities has been tightening over the past two cycles, with bitcoin and other majors trading in tandem with the Nasdaq and S&P 500. As a result, when speculative capital leaves equities for an IPO allocation, it may also impact the crypto market. A similar scenario occurred in 2021 when Coinbase listed, marking the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, followed by a 50% drawdown. The lesson learned is that institutional milestones often signal the end of a cycle rather than the beginning.
SpaceX's IPO, with its 30% retail allocation and material bitcoin position, may have a direct impact on crypto flows. The retail allocation of roughly $22 billion may divert funds away from crypto, while the company's bitcoin holdings, worth around $600 million, make it the first public-market debut of a company with a disclosed material bitcoin position under the new fair-value accounting rules.
The upcoming roadshow in May and June will be a testable signal for crypto's performance, and whether it can hold up or will begin to drift lower as allocators prepare for the SpaceX subscription.