This excerpt is from CoinDesk's 'Daybook' newsletter. Subscribe here for more insights. Bitcoin reached $77,400, rebounding alongside other risk assets following positive earnings reports from major US tech companies, which helped stabilize the market. The upswing came after Apple, along with other industry giants such as Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon, reported double-digit revenue growth, enhancing sentiment across the sector.
These earnings reports contributed to a rise in risk assets, as renewed confidence in AI growth drew investors back to equities and crypto. However, the current bounce is seen as relief buying rather than a sign of a new rally.
According to crypto exchange Mercado Bitcoin, the market is experiencing 'short-term pressure due to mixed structural factors,' including diminished hopes for rate cuts, ETF outflows, and increased geopolitical risk. Despite oil price surges and over $400 million in outflows from spot bitcoin ETFs, crypto prices remained stable as April came to a close. The ongoing Iran conflict and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could lead to higher crude prices, fueling inflation and making central banks less likely to cut interest rates.
This, in turn, could negatively impact crypto and other risk assets by making cash and bonds more attractive. The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, along with the absence of clear rate-cut signals, led to a repricing of policy expectations. 'In the short term, the market is expected to remain volatile and highly reactive to economic data,' noted Rony Szuster, head of research at Mercado Bitcoin. 'In the medium term, the structure will depend on the stabilization of institutional flows and the path of global monetary policy.' With Jerome Powell's term as Fed chair ending on May 15 and Kevin Warsh expected to chair the June FOMC meeting, potential volatility may arise due to Warsh's stance on tightening monetary policy.
The key test for bitcoin remains at the $80,000 level. A successful break could attract new buyers, while a failed attempt may trigger selling if leveraged long positions are unwound. For further analysis of today's altcoin and derivatives activity, see Crypto Markets Today.
For a comprehensive list of upcoming events, refer to CoinDesk's 'Crypto Week Ahead.' The weekly bitcoin price chart is currently testing the $80,000 resistance zone, with the RSI showing early signs of a bullish divergence, although this remains unconfirmed on a weekly close. Failure to break above this level may keep the price range-bound between the 200-day exponential moving average of approximately $68,000 and the $80,000 level.