A historic stock-market debut is approaching, with SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) expected in June, which may attract significant interest and potentially divert funds from the crypto market. The company has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming for a $75 billion capital raise at a valuation of $1.75 trillion.
If successful, this would be the largest stock-market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019. Furthermore, OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with valuations near $1 trillion and potentially raising over $60 billion, respectively. The combined capital pull of over $240 billion from these IPOs could exceed every venture-backed US IPO since 2000, according to PitchBook estimates. This massive influx of capital may lead to a rotation out of equities and into these new listings, potentially affecting the crypto market.
Crypto assets, including bitcoin and ether, have traded with increasing correlation to the Nasdaq and S&P 500 over the past two cycles. As a result, when speculative capital leaves equities for an IPO allocation, some of the capital that would otherwise bid up higher-beta assets, such as crypto, may be diverted.
The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a point of concern. Traders who read the IPO as a signal that crypto was going mainstream spent the next six months watching mainstream capital rotate out. The lesson is that institutional milestones frequently mark tops rather than starting lines, as the capital that chases the milestone is often the same capital that was previously holding up the asset.
Two features of the SpaceX listing connect directly to crypto flows: the 30% retail allocation, which is three times the typical retail share, and the company's holding of 8,285 BTC worth roughly $600 million in Coinbase Prime custody. The testable signal going forward is whether crypto holds up through the roadshow window in May and June or begins to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription.
However, a bitcoin rally that extends through the roadshow suggests the spot-ETF bid has decoupled crypto from broader risk-on flows.