Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, believes that Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is not just about reducing trading costs, but also about capturing the upside. Hyperliquid's zero-fee-to-open model for event trading under HIP-4 is expected to introduce a new level of competition.
Hayes argues that the real differentiator is Hyperliquid's exchange token, HYPE, which allows users to benefit from platform activity. This is in contrast to Polymarket and Kalshi, which do not currently offer this feature. Hayes predicts that HIP-4 will become a dominant prediction market due to Hyperliquid's large user base, lower fees, and robust tech infrastructure, with HYPE token holders able to directly profit from their usage of the platform.
The valuation of HYPE is around $38 billion, compared to the implied valuation of a potential Polymarket token, which is around $14 billion. The geographical landscape also plays a role, with Polymarket facing regulatory challenges in Asia and Hyperliquid having a strong user base in the region. In contrast, Kalshi's model is built around compliance and licensing, and does not offer token incentives, making it a direct test of Hayes' thesis.