The resurgence of the Iran war premium has had a profound impact on the cryptocurrency market. Over the past 24 hours, bitcoin has slid 2.1% to $75,633, representing a 3% decline over the week, as Brent crude oil prices surged 7.1% to $126.41 per barrel - a four-year high - in response to an Axios report indicating that President Donald Trump is scheduled to receive a briefing on new military options against Iran. The report also revealed that US Central Command has requested the deployment of hypersonic missiles to the Middle East, which would mark the first combat use of such weapons by American forces. The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since the onset of the war in late February, severely disrupting the flow of crude oil, natural gas, and oil products.
This development has led to the emergence of a war premium, which refers to the portion of an asset's price driven by conflict risk rather than fundamental supply and demand factors. Brent crude has been carrying a substantial war premium throughout the year, with prices increasing by over 100% year-to-date.
The global benchmark is currently on a nine-day winning streak, its longest since May 2022, and has risen by over 100% year-to-date. Ether has dropped 3.4% to $2,244, representing a 4.4% decline over the week, while XRP has fallen 2.1% to $1.37, a 3.7% decline over seven days. Solana has lost 2.6% to $82.62, and BNB has shed 1.9% to $615. The only top 10 cryptocurrency to experience gains outside of stablecoins is dogecoin, which has risen 3.8% on the day and 10.1% over the week to $0.10.
Risk assets are experiencing declines across the board, with Nasdaq 100 futures erasing an earlier 1.1% rally fueled by strong earnings from Alphabet and Amazon, MSCI's Asia Pacific share index falling 1.4%, and European equities poised to drop 1% at the open. The US dollar has gained, while bonds have slid as the surge in oil prices and a hawkish Fed have reduced demand for fixed income. Treasury 10-year yields are holding near their highest levels since July, while Japan's 10-year notes have reached their highest level since 1997, according to Bloomberg.
Bitcoin's resilience during the early stages of the war is being tested, as the asset has maintained a narrow range between $74,000 and $78,000 throughout April despite the rise in oil prices and the conflict entering its third month. Each escalation headline has resulted in a sharper decline, and the cumulative damage is beginning to manifest. Bitcoin is currently $50,000 below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000. Fernando Lillo, director at exchange Zoomex, stated in a note that any break above $80,000 would require the war premium to unwind.
'Bitcoin is attempting to break the key $80,000 level, which would necessitate a resolution to the Middle East conflict and, consequently, a decline in Brent crude oil prices below $100 per barrel,' he said. 'One is impossible without the other, and the USA administration's plans for a prolonged naval blockade of Iran are becoming a significant obstacle.' Lillo identified a possible scenario in which the Trump administration lifts the blockade in the coming days and frames it as a response to 'positive steps by Iran' to engineer a relief rally. 'A potential lifting of restrictions in the region and lower oil prices could trigger an accelerated influx of capital into risk assets, paving the way for Bitcoin to consolidate above $80,000 and move towards $85,000.'