The landscape of prediction markets is undergoing a significant shift, transitioning from isolated, event-driven bets to platforms characterized by consistent user engagement, as revealed in a joint report by Bitget Wallet and Polymarket. The trading volume on Polymarket surged to $25.7 billion in March, but the report highlights a more profound change in user behavior.
An analysis of 1.29 million wallets in the first quarter shows that users are returning to the platform more frequently and participating in a broader range of markets, spanning cryptocurrency, sports, and politics. The data suggests that growth is being driven by the frequency of trades rather than their size, with over 82% of users trading less than $10,000 during the quarter, indicating the market's continued dominance by retail participants.
Instead of making large, sporadic bets, users are opting for smaller, more regular trades. According to Alvin Kan, Chief Operating Officer of Bitget Wallet, 'Prediction markets are becoming less about capital and more about consistent, repeated actions. What we're witnessing is a behavioral shift: the market is scaling with more frequent interactions, not larger trades.' Cryptocurrency remains the primary point of entry for new users, accounting for nearly 40% of initial activity due to its continuous trading and familiar price movements, making it a natural starting point. However, as users become more active, their participation expands to markets tied to real-world events.
The report characterizes this evolution as a structural change, where prediction markets are no longer solely driven by spikes around major events like elections but are becoming continuous systems where users regularly return to track and respond to changing probabilities. Elden Mirzoian, Director of Growth and Partnerships at Polymarket, notes, 'As prediction markets evolve into core financial infrastructure, distribution becomes as crucial as the underlying market itself. We're observing a shift from episodic trading to more continuous engagement.' This shift is also altering how these markets are utilized, with prices increasingly reflecting real-time expectations around macroeconomic trends, politics, and culture, and beginning to appear alongside traditional data sources in media and financial analysis. The growth has been rapid, with monthly trading volume climbing from approximately $1.2 billion in 2025 to over $20 billion in early 2026, while active wallets have more than tripled in six months.
Industry projections cited in the report estimate the market could reach $240 billion in volume this year, with a long-term trajectory toward $1 trillion. As participation increases, the focus is shifting toward access and usability, with wallets emerging as key entry points, facilitating users' discovery of markets and real-time interaction with them.