A historic stock market debut is imminent, and the crypto market is bracing for impact. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. If successful, this will be the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019. The listing is expected to take place in June, with Polymarket traders assigning a 65% probability to this timeline and a 53% chance that the first-day closing market cap will exceed $2 trillion.
SpaceX is not alone in its plans, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also preparing for listings, which could collectively pull in over $240 billion from June to the end of the year. This massive capital influx could have a significant impact on the crypto market, which shares the same liquidity pool as tech and AI equities.
As a result, bitcoin, ether, and other major cryptocurrencies may experience a decline in value as speculative capital is redirected towards these IPOs. Historical parallels, such as Coinbase's listing in 2021, suggest that institutional milestones can mark the beginning of a downturn rather than an upswing.
The 30% retail allocation in SpaceX's IPO, worth approximately $22 billion, could also divert funds away from the crypto market. Furthermore, SpaceX's significant bitcoin holdings, valued at around $600 million, make this IPO the first public-market debut of a company with a material bitcoin position disclosed under new fair-value accounting rules.
The crypto market's response to these developments will be crucial in determining whether it can decouple from broader risk-on flows and maintain its value in the face of this significant liquidity drain.