Bitcoin Bulls Face Hurdles in Quest to Surpass $80,000

After reaching above $79,000, Bitcoin has retreated to $76,500, stalling its rally from the late-March lows below $65,000. Recent economic data suggests that a rapid return to form may be hindered. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index has fallen to a record low of 49.8, largely due to inflationary pressures related to the Iran conflict. Inflation expectations have surged, with the one-year gauge increasing to 4.8% in April, and long-term expectations rising to 3.5%, the highest since October 2025. This sharp rise could limit the Federal Reserve's ability to signal interest-rate cuts, as additional easing may reinforce inflationary pressures, potentially capping upside or slowing gains in BTC and other risk assets. Analysts note that the long-term expectations move is the more critical data point for the Federal Reserve. The Fed is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate between 3.5% and 3.75% this Wednesday, while traders are pricing in a potential Bank of Japan rate increase in June. Sustained ETF inflows remain crucial for supporting spot BTC on dips, and coordinated industry efforts have helped DeFi tokens hold up relatively well despite the KelpDAO exploit. Bitcoin's hourly price swings have broken out of an ascending trendline, and prices are trading below their 50- and 200-hour averages, indicating uptrend exhaustion and potential for a deeper price pullback.