The specter of war with Iran has returned, and the cryptocurrency market is feeling the effects. Bitcoin's value fell 2.1% over the past 24 hours to $75,633 during Asian trading hours on Thursday, representing a 3% decline for the week. This downturn coincided with a significant 7.1% jump in Brent crude oil prices to $126.41 per barrel, the highest level in four years, following an Axios report that President Donald Trump is scheduled to receive a briefing on new military options against Iran.
The report also mentioned that US Central Command has requested the deployment of hypersonic missiles to the Middle East, which would mark the first combat use of such weapons by American forces. The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since the onset of the conflict in late February, disrupting the flow of crude oil, natural gas, and oil products. This situation has led to a 'war premium,' which is the portion of an asset's price driven by the risk of conflict rather than supply and demand fundamentals.
Brent crude has been carrying a substantial war premium all year, with prices rising over 100% year-to-date. The global benchmark is currently on a nine-day winning streak, its longest since May 2022, and has increased by over 100% year-to-date. Ether's price dropped 3.4% to $2,244 and is down 4.4% for the week. XRP fell 2.1% to $1.37, representing a 3.7% decline over seven days.
Solana lost 2.6% to $82.62, while BNB shed 1.9% to $615. The only cryptocurrency among the top 10 to show gains, excluding stablecoins, is dogecoin, which rose 3.8% on the day and 10.1% for the week to $0.10.
Risk assets are experiencing losses across the board. Nasdaq 100 futures erased earlier gains of 1.1% that were fueled by strong earnings reports from Alphabet and Amazon.
The MSCI Asia Pacific share index fell 1.4%, and European equities are poised to decline 1% at the opening bell. The US dollar gained strength, and bond prices slid as the surge in oil prices and a hawkish Federal Reserve led to decreased demand for fixed-income assets.
Treasury 10-year yields remained near their highest levels since July, while Japan's 10-year notes reached their highest level since 1997, according to Bloomberg. Bitcoin's ability to withstand the early stages of the conflict is being tested. The cryptocurrency has maintained a tight range between $74,000 and $78,000 throughout April, despite oil prices rising from $98 to $126 and the conflict entering its third month. However, each escalation in the conflict has resulted in sharper declines, and the cumulative damage is starting to become apparent.
Bitcoin is now $50,000 below its all-time high of $126,000, reached in October 2025. Fernando Lillo, director at the Zoomex exchange, noted in a statement that any break above $80,000 would require the war premium to dissipate. 'Bitcoin is attempting to break through the key $80,000 level, which would necessitate a resolution to the Middle East conflict and, consequently, a drop in Brent crude oil prices below $100 per barrel,' he stated.
'One is impossible without the other, and the Trump administration's plans for a prolonged naval blockade of Iran are becoming a significant obstacle.' Lillo suggested a possible scenario where the Trump administration lifts the blockade in the coming days and frames it as a response to 'positive steps' by Iran, potentially triggering a relief rally. 'A potential lifting of restrictions in the region and lower oil prices could trigger an accelerated influx of capital into risk assets, paving the way for Bitcoin to consolidate above $80,000 and move towards $85,000.'