Bitcoin's Upward Trend Encounters Inflation Warning Backed by the Pentagon

As bitcoin seemed poised to break through the $80,000 barrier, macroeconomic uncertainty reemerged as a challenge. A notable development came from the Pentagon, which informed U.S. lawmakers that clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz could take at least six months and would only begin after the U.S.-Iran conflict ends. This briefing also warned of potentially elevated gasoline and oil prices through the midterm elections, according to the Washington Post. Persistently high energy costs could lead to sticky inflation, limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates, which would negatively impact risk assets like bitcoin. The risks are already evident in markets, with WTI crude climbing to around $95 and government bond yields rising. "Rising oil prices alongside increasing yields and widening volatility spreads signal tighter financial conditions and higher market risks," stated Michael Kramer, founder and CEO of Mott Capital Management. Despite this, U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs continue to see sustained demand. However, some analysts advise caution, noting the rally lacks broad support in the spot market. The recent price increase is driven by demand in the perpetual futures market, while spot demand contracts. The market capitalization of USDT has reached a record high, and speculation in non-serious tokens is intensifying. A bullish crossover in the bitcoin-gold price ratio could indicate continued outperformance of bitcoin.