A historic stock market debut is approaching, with SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) anticipated to take place in June, potentially drawing interest away from the crypto market. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. This would make it the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019.
OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with valuations nearing $1 trillion and $60 billion, respectively. The combined capital raise of over $240 billion from these IPOs could exceed the total venture-backed US IPOs since 2000, according to PitchBook.
Crypto expert Alex Good warns that the SpaceX IPO could lead to a bearish equities market, comparing it to the Solana $300 moment. The massive influx of capital into these IPOs may trigger index-driven flows, sector-rotation effects, and a compression of liquidity in other assets, including crypto.
As bitcoin and other majors have traded in tandem with the Nasdaq and S&P 500, a rotation out of equities could impact crypto prices. The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a point of concern.
The 30% retail allocation in the SpaceX IPO, roughly $22 billion, may also divert funds away from crypto. Furthermore, SpaceX's disclosed bitcoin position of 8,285 BTC, worth approximately $600 million, makes its IPO the first public-market debut of a company with a material bitcoin holding. The upcoming roadshow window in May and June will be a testable signal for crypto's resilience in the face of these massive IPOs.