According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is not just about reducing trading costs, but also about capturing the upside. The Hyperliquid Improvement Proposal (HIP)-4 introduces event trading with a zero-fee-to-open model, but Hayes argues that the true differentiator is the HYPE token, which allows users to profit from platform activity. This sets Hyperliquid apart from Polymarket and Kalshi, which do not offer similar benefits. With its large user base, lower trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure, Hyperliquid is poised to become a dominant player in the prediction market.
The value of HYPE is currently around $38 billion, compared to the implied valuation of Polymarket's potential token, which is around $14 billion. However, it's essential to note that pre-listing markets can be highly speculative and may not accurately reflect market demand. The geographical distribution of users also plays a crucial role, with Hyperliquid facing fewer regulatory constraints in Asia, where its user base is concentrated.
In contrast, Polymarket is rebuilding its US business with compliance at its core, while Kalshi's model is built around compliance and licensing, without token incentives. This makes Kalshi the most direct test of Hayes' thesis, as users can trade event outcomes but have no path to the upside of the platform itself.