The resurgence of the Iran war premium has negatively impacted the cryptocurrency market. Over the past 24 hours, bitcoin has declined by 2.1% to $75,633, representing a 3% decrease over the week. This downturn coincides with a 7.1% surge in Brent crude prices to $126.41 per barrel, the highest intraday level in four years, following reports that President Trump is to receive a briefing on new military options against Iran.
The potential deployment of hypersonic missiles to the Middle East, as requested by U.S. Central Command, would mark the first combat use of such weapons by American forces.
The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since late February, severely restricting the flow of crude oil, natural gas, and oil products. This situation has led to a war premium, where a portion of an asset's price is driven by conflict risk rather than supply and demand fundamentals.
As a result, Brent prices have increased by over 100% year-to-date. The global benchmark is currently experiencing a nine-day winning streak, its longest since May 2022, and has risen by over 100% year-to-date. Other cryptocurrencies, including ether, XRP, and Solana, have also seen significant declines, with ether dropping 3.4% to $2,244 and XRP falling 2.1% to $1.37.
In contrast, dogecoin has seen a 3.8% increase in value over the past 24 hours. The rise in oil prices and a hawkish Fed have led to a decline in risk assets, with the Nasdaq 100 futures erasing earlier gains and European equities expected to drop 1% at the open.
The dollar has strengthened, while bonds have slid, resulting in Treasury 10-year yields holding near their highest level since July. Japan's 10-year notes have reached their highest level since 1997. Bitcoin's ability to withstand the early stages of the war is being tested, with the asset having held a tight band between $74,000 and $78,000 throughout April, despite oil prices rising from $98 to $126. However, each escalation headline has produced a sharper drawdown, and the cumulative damage is beginning to show.
Bitcoin is now $50,000 below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000. According to Fernando Lillo, director at exchange Zoomex, any break above $80,000 would require the war premium to unwind.
Lillo stated that bitcoin is attempting to break the key $80,000 level, which would necessitate a resolution to the Middle East conflict and a subsequent drop in Brent crude oil prices below $100 per barrel. He also flagged a possible scenario where the Trump administration lifts the blockade in the coming days, framing it as a response to 'positive steps by Iran,' which could trigger a relief rally and an accelerated influx of capital into risk assets, potentially paving the way for bitcoin to consolidate above $80,000 and move toward $85,000.