A new report by Bitget Wallet and Polymarket reveals a significant shift in the prediction market landscape, transforming from isolated event-based bets to platforms driven by daily user engagement. The report highlights that trading volume on Polymarket surged to $25.7 billion in March, with a notable change in user behavior. An analysis of 1.29 million wallets in the first quarter shows that users are participating more frequently and across a broader range of markets, including cryptocurrency, sports, and politics.
The growth is attributed to the frequency of trades rather than their size, with over 82% of users trading less than $10,000 during the quarter, indicating a retail-driven market. Instead of making large, infrequent bets, users are opting for smaller, more regular trades.
According to Alvin Kan, Bitget Wallet's chief operating officer, 'Prediction markets are transitioning from being focused on capital to consistent, repeated actions.' The data suggests a behavioral shift, with the market scaling through increased daily activity rather than larger trades. Cryptocurrency remains the primary entry point for new users, accounting for nearly 40% of early activity, due to its continuous trading and familiar price movements. However, as users become more active, their participation shifts towards markets tied to real-world events. The report characterizes this evolution as a structural change, where prediction markets are no longer driven solely by major events but are becoming continuous systems where users regularly track and respond to changing probabilities.
As Elden Mirzoian, director of growth and partnerships at Polymarket, notes, 'We're seeing a shift from episodic trading to more continuous engagement.' This shift is also changing how these markets are utilized, with prices increasingly reflecting real-time expectations around macroeconomic trends, politics, and culture, and are beginning to appear alongside traditional data sources in media and financial analysis. The growth of the industry has accelerated rapidly, with monthly trading volume rising from about $1.2 billion in 2025 to over $20 billion in early 2026, while active wallets have more than tripled in six months. According to industry projections cited in the report, the market could reach $240 billion in volume this year, with a longer-term potential of reaching $1 trillion.
As participation increases, the focus is shifting towards access and usability, with wallets emerging as key entry points, enabling users to discover markets and interact with them in real-time.