The current bitcoin price of $78,642.81 has not yet hit rock bottom, and it's unlikely to reach a new all-time high this year, according to Michael Terpin, a seasoned bitcoin investor and author of Bitcoin Supercycle. Terpin believes that for a bull market to be declared, the price must break above $100,000, which he thinks will happen after the price drops to $57,000 by October. Despite a significant gain in April, Terpin asserts that the bitcoin market is still in a downturn.
As one of the first investors in the digital asset sector, Terpin has founded several ventures, including Transform Group, a PR firm focused on blockchain companies, and BitAngels, a crypto angel investor group. His pessimistic outlook contrasts with the consensus among analysts that the February low marked the end of the bear market and the start of a new bull run. Most analysts point to renewed inflows into U.S.-listed spot ETFs and the token's resilience during the Iran conflict and oil price spike as evidence of a new bull run. However, Terpin argues that the rejection of the $80,000 psychological barrier during Asian trading hours on Monday, partly due to high oil prices, is typical of this stage in the bitcoin cycle.
Market analyst Jason Fernandes agrees with Terpin that the bottom has not been reached but disagrees with the timeline, suggesting that the market may not have fully capitulated yet. Terpin insists that the fundamentals point to a bottom around $57,000, which he predicts will happen in October, similar to the timeline last year when BTC first dipped below $100,000. Fernandes notes that broader macro conditions could continue to impact risk assets, including bitcoin, and that liquidity conditions remain tight.
The author and entrepreneur also believes that bitcoin will not see an all-time high this year, a view disputed by crypto market analyst Mati Greenspan, who thinks that the level of institutional adoption and growing interest makes a new all-time high plausible. AdLunam's Fernandes also argues that market sentiment has not yet reached the levels typically associated with cycle bottoms, suggesting that another leg down may be needed before a sustainable base is formed.