Research has shown that a small group of traders is driving the market, but an even smaller group is reaping most of the benefits. According to a report by blockchain analytics firm Solidus Labs, profit distribution on Polymarket is highly concentrated, with less than 1% of wallets capturing around half of the total profits in key markets. Between December 2025 and February 2026, a mere 0.55% of profitable maker wallets and 0.26% of winning taker wallets accounted for approximately 50% of the gains, translating to around $8 million out of $16 million in profits. This data supports previous findings that a small minority of traders influences market prices.
However, the report highlights that this concentration of wealth does not necessarily imply wrongdoing, as some traders may have an advantage due to their sophistication, capital, or speed of action. The study also identifies signs of wash trading, with around 15% of volume in some markets exhibiting patterns consistent with self-trading or economically neutral positions. Solidus Labs notes that this type of trade has no equivalent in traditional finance and may be driven by incentive farming rather than pure manipulation. The firm's report relies on verifiable on-chain data, but its framing suggests a need for surveillance infrastructure, such as its own HALO platform.