The US-driven momentum that fueled April's bitcoin rally is losing steam. The Coinbase Premium, which measures the difference in price between Coinbase and offshore exchanges, has flipped negative for the first time since early April, according to CryptoQuant data.
This metric had remained positive from April 8 to April 22, during which time bitcoin's price rose from $66,000 to a local high of nearly $78,000. The premium peaked around April 22 but has since declined. As a widely used proxy for US institutional and dollar-denominated flows, a persistent negative reading indicates that American investors are consistently paying less than the rest of the world, suggesting they are either selling more aggressively or not participating in the market. On-chain data paints a similar picture.
The 7-day sum of Bitcoin Realized Loss, which tracks the total dollar value of coins sold at a loss across the network, surged to $5.97 billion on April 24 as bitcoin traded near $78,000. This realized loss is only recognized when holders sell coins below their original purchase price. A print near $6 billion at $78,000 implies that sellers were buyers at higher prices. According to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr., this cohort likely entered the market between $80,000 and $95,000 during late 2025 and early 2026, using the April bounce as an exit opportunity rather than a re-entry point.
The combination of these two datasets suggests that US institutional buyers are slowing their purchasing activity through Coinbase, coinciding with an increase in selling activity by holders. Bitcoin was recently trading around $76,000. Traders are now watching to see if the Realized Loss metric continues to decline as the underwater supply is cleared.
The reading has already dropped from its April 24 peak to $4.7 billion by April 28, indicating that the seller cohort is dwindling.